Эдийн засаг Та Монголын эдийн засгийг аварч чадна
  • 2014/12/22
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 Та үндэсний үйлдвэрлэлээ хэр дэмждэг вэ? Өөрөөр хэлбэл, таны өдөр тутмын худалдан авалтын тань хэдэн хувийг үндэсний бүтээгдэхүүн маань эзэлдэг вэ?

 Бидний өргөн хэрэглээний барааны 70 орчим хувийг импортын бүтээгдэхүүн эзэлдэг. 00-н цаас, ариун цэврийн хэрэглэлээс авахуулаад бидний өмсөж буй хувцас, хоол хүнс, цахилгаан хэрэгсэл, машин тэрэг гээд л тоо томшгүй аж үйлдвэрийн эцсийн бүтээгдэхүүнүүдийг бид импортоор оруулж ирдэг. 2013 оны Үндэсний Статистикийн Хорооны мэдээллээс үзэхэд Монгол Улсын нийт импорт 6.4 тэрбум, экспорт 4.3 тэрбум доллар байна.

statistic
ГАДААД ХУДАЛДААНЫ ЖИЛИЙН НИЙТ ЭРГЭЛТ, ЭКСПОРТ, ИМПОРТ
жилээр сая.ам.доллар

Экспортын 89 (Жич: 89%=эрдэс бүтээгдэхүүн 81.9%+үнэт, хагас үнэт чулуу, металл, гоёлын чулуу 7.3% гэж нэмж тооцов) хувийг уул уурхайн түүхий эд эзэлж байна.
BomStat
ЭКСПОРТ, барааны бүлгээр, мян.ам.доллар

Үүнээс дүгнэхэд өнөөгийн Монгол улс маань үйлдвэрлэгч бус хэрэглэгч улс юм. Бид баялгаа гадны улс оронд борлуулж ашиг олдог ч, эргүүлээд л бүгдийг нь импортын бараагаар сольчихдог. Манай экспортын 86.6 хувийг БНХАУ эзэлдэг.

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 Мэдээж импортоор орж ирж буй шаардлагатай бүтээгдэхүүнүүд болох шатахуун, машин техник, цахилгаан хэрэгслүүдийг одоохондоо яалтай ч билээ. Манай улс шатахууны хувьд 100 хувийн импортын хамааралтай. Мөн машин техникийн хувьд ч бараг ялгаагүй. Магадгүй үйлдвэрлэл хөгжиж хэзээ нэгэн цагт Монгол брэндийн машин унаад явах цаг ирэх л байх. Гэвч хоол хүнснийхээ тал орчим хувийг импортоор оруулсаар л байх уу? Нэн ялангуяа бидний голлох бүтээгдэхүүнүүд болох мах махан бүтээгдэхүүн, сүү, гурилаа 2 хөршөөсөө зөөсөөр л. Дэлгүүрт орос өндөг, йогурт, зайрмаг зах зээлээ алдахгүй байсаар. Магадгүй Орос бүтээгдэхүүнүүний амт, загвар хийц сайтай шошго нь хэрэглэгчдийн байнгын сонголт болдог гэхэд хилсдэхгүй байх. Чанарын хувьд агуу Орос оронг муулахгүй ч бүтээгдэхүүний туулсан замын хувьд бодоход дэлгүүрийн лангуунд тавигдах гэж хэр хугацаа зарцуулдаг бол? Хангалттай дотоодоо хангачих үйлдвэрлэл байгаа хэдий ч яагаад заавал тэр холоос зөөх шаардлагатай гэж?

 Эндээс дүгнэхэд Монгол хүний үндэсний үйлдвэрлэлээ дэмжих сэтгэлгээ хэр байдаг бол гэсэн бодол орж ирсэн юм. Хэн дэлгүүрээс юугаа авна уу тэр хүний худалдан авалтын сонголт байхад ер нь яагаад заавал үндэсний үйлдвэрлэлээ дэмжих хэрэгтэй гэж?

 Гэвч таны өдөр тутмын худалдан авалт тань Монгол улсын эдийн засагт байнга нөлөө үзүүлж байдаг гэдгийг та мэдэх үү? Та үндэсний үйлдвэрлэлийнхээ бүтээгдэхүүнийг худалдан авснаар зах зээл дээр эрэлт ихэснэ. Үүнийгээ дагаад нийлүүлэлт ч мөн адил ихэсч, үйлдвэрлэл тэлнэ. Ингэснээр Монгол хүний ажлын байр нэмэгдэж, Дотоодын Нийт Бүтээгдэхүүн өснө. Харин эсрэгээрээ та импортын бараа худалдан авснаар эдийн засагт таагүй нөлөө үзүүлнэ. Бид улс дотроо бараа үйлчилгээгээ төгрөгөөр солилцдог бол гадаад улстай бараа үйлчилгээгээ солилцоход валютын ханш (exchange rate) гэсэн ойлголт гарч ирдэг. Ихэнхи хэрэглээ, түүхий эдээ гаднаас авдаг (голчлон ам доллар ба юанаар) импортлогч улсын хувьд гадаад валют багассанаар гадаад валютын ханш өсч төгрөгийн ханш унана. Аливаа юм хомсдохоороо үнэ цэнэтэй болж, хэт ихдэхээрээ үнэ цэнэгүй болдогтой адил төгрөгийн ханш сулрана. Жишээ нь: Гар утас бол бидний зайлшгүй хэрэгцээ мөнөөсөө мөн. Гэвч Галакси (Galaxy), Айфон (iPhone) 5,6 гээд л орчин үеийн шил шилээ даран гарч ирэх дэвшилтэт технологийн бүтээдэхүүнүүд нь валютын зардлыг нэмэгдүүлж байдаг. Дээр хэлсэнчлэн валютын зардал нэмэгдсэнээр төгрөгийн ханш буурна. Энэ нь таны халаасанд буй мөнгөний худалдан авах чадварт шууд нөлөө үзүүлнэ. Өөрөөр хэлбэл орлого тань багассантай ижил ойлголт юм.

 Инфляцийг их зөвөөр ойлгох хэрэгтэй. 2014 оны 11 сарын байдлаар Монгол Улсын инфляцийн түвшин 11.5% байгаа бөгөөд төв банк инфляцийг нэг оронтой тоонд барина гэсэн зорилготой. Хөгжингүй орнуудын хувьд инфляцийн түвшин харьцангуй бага байдаг. Япон орны хувьд олон жил эдийн засаг нь дифляцитай байсан бөгөөд инфляцийн түвшингээ 2%-д хүргэхийн тулд засгийн газар нь ажиллаж байна. Иений ханшаа сулруулж, экспортоосоо ашиг олж байгаа ч гадаад худалдааны байнгын алдангитай байна. Үүнд хэд хэдэн шалтгаан байгаагийн дотор Японы үндэсний компаных нь өрсөлдөх чадвар суларсан гэх ноцтой дүгнэлт гаржээ. Ялангуяа залуучуудын дийлэнхи нь Японыхоо үүрэн телефоны компаны утаснаас илүү гадны Apple болон Samsung компанийн утсыг хэрэглэх болсон нь үүнийг баталж байгаа нэг жишээ юм.

Тэгэхээр үйлдвэрлэл нь хөгжсөн Япон орны хувьд ч энэ мэт асуудал үүсээд байгаа нь Монголынхтой ижилхэн мэт. Үйлдвэрлэл нь байгаа ч гадны бараа бүтээгдэхүүнүүдийг илүүд үзэх. 21-р зуунтайгаа хөл нийлүүлэн алхах дэвшилтэт технологийг үгүйсгэж чадахгүй ч дотооддоо үйлдвэрлэсэн зарим бүтээгдэхүүнээ яагаад дэмжиж болохгүй гэж? Залуус бидэнд үндэсний үйлдвэрлэлээ дэмжих эерэг сэтгэлгээ, дуу хоолой хэрэгтэй. Цагаан сар, шинэ жил, хуримын ёслол, мартын найман, цэргийн баяр гээд л олон тэмдэглэлт баяруудаараа Хятадаас зөөсөн бараануудын оронд үндэснийхээ үйлдвэрлэлийг дэмжсэн худалдан авалт хийвэл ямар сайхан вэ? Жишээ нь цагаан сараар “Янмал” оймс, “Алтан говь” шоколад өгөөд л, мартын наймнаар охид бүсгүйчүүддээ монгол дархчуудын урласан гар хийцийн цүнх, эрүүл мэндийн “Монос” компанын гоо сайхны бүтээгдэхүүн, цэргийн баяраар арьс ширээр хийсэн чанар сайтай бүс гээд өгч болох юм.

Таны үндэсний үйлдвэрлэлээ дэмжсэн худалдан авалт тань нэг ч гэсэн ажлын байр бий болгоход тусална. Монгол хүн ажил орлоготой байна гэдэг эдийн засаг болоод нийгэмд маань их чухал хувь нэмэр оруулна. Магадгүй зарим үйлдвэрүүдийн бүтээгдэхүүн үнэтэй байж болох юм. Тэгсэн ч үйлдвэрлэл өргөжих тусам техник технологи нь сайжирч, нэгж бүтээгдэхүүний зардал буурдаг сайн талтай. Мөн өрсөлдөгч компаниуд ч бий болно. Ер нь тэгээд гадаадын юм гэхээр л сайн гэсэн үзлээс салж, Монголынхоо чанартай бүтээгдэхүүнийг хэрэглэж сурцгаая. Бид л үүнийг хийж чадна. Үндэсний үйлдвэрлэл хөгжих болтугай.

Өсөхбаярын Үүлэн
Шиншү их сургууль
Эдийн засгийн факультет
2014.12.22

 

Ашигласан материал :

  1. Монгол улсын үндэсний статистикийн хороо: “Монгол Улсын 11 сарын инфляцийн түвшин” “ Гадаад худалдааны жилийн нийт эргэлт, экспорт, импорт ”

http://www.nso.mn/index.php

  1. Монголын төв банкны албан ёсны хуудас “Мөнгөний бодлого”http://www.mongolbank.mn//listmonetarypolicy.aspx
  2. Монголын гадаад худалдааны тойм “Монголын гадаад худалдааны статистик мэдээллийн шинжилгээ, дүгнэлт” /2013 оны 4-р улирлын байдлаар/

http://www.mongolchamber.mn/attachments/article/890/FTRM13.IV.pdf

  1. Японы эдийн засгийн сонин, 2014 оны 12 сарын 9 өдрийн дугаар, “Эдийн засгийг засаж шинжлэх нь”
    日本経済新聞 2014年12月9日 「景気、直し探る」

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