Эдийн засаг 0%-н хүү хэзээ хүртэл үргэлжилэх вэ?
  • 2015/09/18
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АНУ-ын төв банк болох Холбооны Нөөцийн Банкны (Federal Reserve Bank) мөнгөний бодлогын зөвлөл FOMC (The Federal Open Market Committee) хоёр өдрийн турш хуралдсаны эцэст бодлогын хүү болох Fed Fund Rate-г одоогийн түвшинд нь үлдээхээр болов. Эдийн засагч, шинжээчид 2015 оны эхээр Fed Fund Rate оны сүүл хавьцаа өсөх байх гэж таамаглаж байсан ч олон улсын зах зээл дээрх хувьцааны зах зээлийн тогтворгүй байдал, Хятадын эдийн засаг удааширалт, түүнээс үүдэх бусад улс орнуудын эдийн засгийн удааширалт, АНУ-ын инфляцийн түвшин 2%-д хүрээгүй зэрэг шалтгааны улмаас одоогийн 0%-ийн хүүг хадгалахаар болов.

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Fed Fund Rate гэдэг нь банкууд төв банкинд хадгалуулж буй нөөцөө ашиглан өөр хоорондоо нэг өдрийн дотор мөнгө зээлдүүлэх үеийн хүүг хэлнэ. Энэ хүүг өсгөх, бууруулах замаар зах зээл дээрх мөнгөний нийлүүлэлтийг хянадаг. Эдийн засагт шууд нөлөөлөх чадвартай маш чухал хүү.

FRB уг хүүг 2008 оны 12 сард санхүүгийн хямралын дараах эдийн засгийг сэргээх арга хэрэгсэл болгон 0% болгосоор өдийг хүрсэн. Үүнээс хойш АНУ-ын эдийн засаг сайжирч, хувьцааны зах зээл нь өсөлттэй гарч, ажилгүйдлийн түвшин 5.1%-д хүрч, GDP өсөлттэй байна.

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S&P 500 индексийн өсөлт (Эх сурвалж: Bloomberg Business)

FRB бодлогын хүүг тэглэснээр, зах зээлд мөнгө их хэмжээгээр нийлүүлэгдсэний улмаар инфляцийн түвшин 2%-д хүрнэ гэж таамаглаж байв. Гэвч газрын тосны үнийн уналт, долларын ханш чангарснаас болж (импортын үнэ буурна) инфляцийн түвшин өсөхгүй байна.

Инфляцийн түвшин

Инфляцийн түвшин   (Эх сурвалж: The Economist)

Дээрээс нь Хятадын эдийн засгийн удааширалтаас үүдэн шинээр хөгжиж буй орнууд ч эдийн засаг нь удааширах хандлагатай болж, олон улсын зах зээл дээрх тогтворгүй байдал үүсч байгаа тул ийнхүү бодлогын хүүгээ хэвээр үлдээлээ.

Хүүг бууруулах нь амар ч, буцаагаад өсгөхөд маш хянуур байхгүй бол болохгүй. Хэт түргэн хүүг өсгөх нь маш их аюултайг олон жишээ харуулна.

Евро бүсийн төв банк, Швед, Израйл, Канад, Өмнөд Солонгос, Австрали, Чили зэрэг улсууд бодлогын хүүгээ өсгөх гэж оролдсон ч харамсалтай нь амжилтанд хүрээгүй.

Улс орны төв банкнуудын бодлогын хүүн өөрчлөлт

Улс орны төв банкнуудын бодлогын хүүний өөрчлөлт

Израйлын төв банк 2009 оны 9 сард анх хүүгээ 0.5%-с 2011 оны 5 сар хүртэл 3.2% хүртэл өсгөсөн. Гэвч Грекээс үүдэлтэй Европын эдийн засгийн хямрал, глобал инфляцийн түвшин хэт доогуур байгаагаас болж аргагүйн эрхэнд буцааж 0.10% болгож бууруулсан.

Шведийн төв банк Riksbank 2010 онд үл хөдлөх хөрөнгийн зах зээл хэт өсч байгаагаас болж хүүг 1.75% – с 2011 оны 7 сар хүртэл 2% хүртэл  өсгөсөн.  Гэвч дахиад л Грекээс үүдэлтэй Европын эдийн засгийн хямралаас болж 12 сард хүүгээ бууруулж эхлэв. Өнөөдөр Швед нь хасах хүүтэй байна.

Санхүүгийн хямралаас хойш хүүг өсгөөгүй хоёр л төв банк байгаа. Английн Төв Банк (Bank of England) болон Холбооны Нөөцийн Банк (FRB). 0% хүүгийн ачаар Англи, Америкийн эдийн засаг нь сайн үзүүлэлттэй байгаа билээ.

Өнөөдрийн FOMC шийдвэртэй зэрэгцээд хувьцааны зах зээл өсөлттэй явж байгаад FRB 10 сард хүүг өсгөх боломж бийг онцолсон даруйд хувьцаа буцаад унасаар S&P500 -5.11 нэгжээр унаж 1990.20 хаагдлаа. Яагаад хүүг өсгөх нь хувьцааны үнийг унагаж байна гэдэгт олон шалтгаан байгаа ч хамгийн энгийн ойлгомжтой тайлбар бол бодлогын хүү өсөөд  ирэхээр хүмүүс заавал хувьцаанд хөрөнгө оруулж мөнгө олох шаардлагагүйгээр зүгээр л банкинд мөнгө хадгалуулбал (бодлогын хүү өссөнөөр банкны хадгаламжийн хүү өснө) хувьцаанаас илүү эрсдэл багатайгаар мөнгөтэй болох тул хувьцааны үнэ унах юм.

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Дараагийн FOMC уулзалт 10 болон 12 сард байгаа ч эдийн засагчид, шинжээчид 12 сар эсвэл 2016 оны эхээр хүүг өсгөх байх гэж таамаглаж байна.

О.Баярсайхан
2015.09.18

Ашигласан материал:

The Wall Street Journal: “Lesson for Fed: Rate Increases Are Fickle”, September 14, 2015

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