Дэлхийн хэвлэлд Орос Америкын ээлжит хэрүүл буюу Кубыг Калининградад авчирсан нь.
  • 2016/10/18
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Барсын ноцолдохыг уулнаас ажих нь гэдэг чинь яг одоо л болоод байна уу даа.  Сүүлийн 2,3 долоо хоног Сирийн иргэний дайныг тойрсон асуудал, Америкын ерөнхийлөгчийн сонгуулийн жанхуунаас болж өрнө дорны 2 барс бие биенээ зогсоо зайгүй ноцож байна. Дэлхийн 3 дугаар дайны эхлэл үү гэсэн гарчигтай мэдээлэл ч энэ тэрүүгээр дүүрэн. Гуравдагч этгээдийн нүдээр бол нөгөө л бие биендээ бурууг тохож, өөрсдийгөө зөвтгөсөн улиг болсон драматик авгай нөхрийн хэрүүл. Харамсалтай нь үүдэх хор уршиг нь гэм зэмгүй олон хүний амь нас. Тэгэхээр ер нь яг юу болоод байна вэ?

Эхлээд Сирийн иргэний дайн. Сирийн иргэний дайн бол ойлгоход амар ринген дээрх 2 талын тулаан биш, рингнээс халиад цаашаа бүр стадионоос гараад гудамжны зодоон болчихсон олон тооны бүлэглэлийн уралцсан төвөгтэй гамшиг гэдгийг бид мэднэ. Ерөнхийд нь харахыг хичээе. Оросын хувьд хэргийн эзэн Башар ал Ассадын Сирийн засгийн газрын хүчнийг дэмжиж байгаа буюу Путины хувьд Ассадын дайсан бол миний дайсан гэсэн нэг л шугамтай. Харин Америкын хувьд байдал шал ондоо буюу тун ярвигтай. Обамагийн кабинет Ассадын дарангуй засаглалын эсрэг байр суурьтайгийн дээр, Исламын улс зэрэг хэт даврагч бүлэглэлүүдийн араас явж байгаа. Гэтэл иргэний дайны талбарт Ассадын засгийн газрын гол өрсөлдөгч нь Исламын улс байх жишээтэй. Исламын улсаар ч зогсохгүй Америкын өстөн(дэлхийн өстөн гэж ч хэлдэг) Аль-Кайдагийн холбоотон Жабхат-ал-Нусра, Ахрар-ал-Шам гэх мэт жихадист бүлэглэлүүд уг дайнд Ассадын эсрэг гар бие оролцож байгаа. Мөн Ираны хүчин, Хезболлагийн хүчнүүд Ассадыг дэмжиж байна. Тэгэхээр жишээ нь Америк Исламын улсыг бөмбөгдлөө гэж бодоход, Ассадын дарангуйлагч засгийг дэмжиж байгаа маягийн ярвигтай байдалд байгаа гэсэн үг. Америк хэдий цөөн тооны Сирийн курдууд, Йорданы дэмжлэгтэй чөлөөлөгч хүчин зэрэг бүлгүүдийг дэмжиж байгаа ч, Дамаскыг эрхэндээ оруулахыг зорьж байгаа дийлэнх том хүчнүүдийн эсрэг байр суурьтай бөгөөд тэдгээр нь хоорондоо ч мөн уралцаж байгаа гэсэн үг. Нэгийг нь цохиод, нөгөөдөхийг нь аврав болов гэдэг шиг. Гэхдээ Америкын гол морал, байр суурь хүний эрх, ардчилалд байгаа гэдгийг ерөнхийлөгч Обама удаа дараа мэдэгдсээр ирсэн.

Нэг ийм балиар юм болж байтал саяхнаас хоёр аварга барсын хэрүүл хурцдаж эхэллээ. Америкын агаарын хүчин террористуудыг мөшгин Сирийн дээгүүр байнгын ажиллагаа өрнүүлж байгаа. Ингэхдээ америкын нисэх хүчний нисгэгчид хэзээ Сирийн ЗГ-н хүчин, цаана нь байгаа Оросуудын эсэргүүцэх систем онгоцыг нь буудаж унагаах бол гэсэн байнгын айдастай нисч байна. Вашингтоны дээд албаныхан Сири дэх энэ мэт ослын гэмээр мөргөлдөөнөөс эмээж ядаж байтал, 2 долоо хоногийн өмнөөс 2 орны харилцааг шалд нь буулгаж, түгшүүрийн харанга дэлдсэн нүүдлийг Оросууд хийв. Оросууд цөмийн цохилт өгөх чадвартай зэвсэг техникийг Газар дундын тэнгис болон Балтийн тэнгисийн алслагдсан муж болох Калининградад нэгэн зэрэг суурьлууллаа. Америкчууд Оросыг өөрсдийнх нь ерөнхийлөгчийн сонгуульд хошуу дүрсэн гэж нээлттэй буруутгаж байсан бол дээрх нүүдлийн дараа цагаан ордон “тодорхойгүй” хариу арга хэмжээ авна гэдгээ мэдэгдсэн. Өнөөдөр хоёр орны харилцаа Хүйтэн дайнаас хойших хамгийн доод цэгтээ хүрч, үүнээс цааш хэрхэн муудах бол хэмээн Москва, Вашингтон дор бүрнээ зовнисон байдалтай байна.

Хачирхалтай нь байдал ингэтлээ дордохын эхлэлийн цэг нь гэрэл гэгээтэй үйл явдал байв. Энэ 9 дүгээр сарын 9-нд, 7 сар үргэлжилсэн дипломат зөвшилцлийн үр дүнд Америкын төрийн нарийн бичгийн дарга Жон Керри болон Оросын гадаад хэргийн сайд Сергей Лавров нар 5 жил хагас үргэлжилсэн Сирийн иргэний дайны “галыг зогсоох” болсон талаар мэдэгдсэн юм. Гэвч уг гэрээ нь анхнаасаа бүтэхгүй зүйл байсан нь тодорч ирэв. Оросын тал Орос, Америкын хүчнийхэн хамтдаа суугаад ISIS болон Аль кайдад цохилт өгөх байршлын мэдээллээ хуваалцах JIC: хамтарсан гүйцэтгэлийн төвийг бий болгохыг шаардав. Керри үүнийг зөвшөөрсөн боловч пентагон Оросуудад итгэсэнгүй. Обамагийн кабинетын гишүүний мэдэгдснээр, Обамагийн баг уг гэрээг бүтээхийн тулд Пентагоны эсэргүүцлийг удаа дараа няцаасан байна. Эцэстээ Пентагон ч ерөнхийлөгчдөө ёсолж, JIC дахь өөрийн үүргийг тодорхойлж, ажилдаа бэлдэж эхэлсэн байна. Гэвч тэдний дургүйцэл хэвлэл мэдээллээр нэг цацагдсан билээ. Ингээд гэрээ хэрэгжиж эхэлсэн ч, ердөө 5 өдрийн дараа АНУ-н хүчин Сирийн дорнод хэсэгт байрласан Сирийн ЗГ-н хүчнийг “санаандгүй” бөмбөгдөж, Сирийн дор хаяж 60 цэргийн аминд хүрэв. Энэ алдаандаа АНУ уучлал хүссэн боловч, Оросууд “Америкчууд зориуд гал зогсоох гэрээг зөрчиж байна” хэмээн мэдэгджээ. Үүнээс 2 өдрийн дараа, Сирийн агаарын хүчин(Оросууд ч орсон байх боломжтой) бүслэгдсэн Алеппо хот руу чиглэсэн НҮБ-н тусламжийн цуваа руу гал нээж дор хаяж 20 хүний аминд хүрлээ хэмээн Вашингтон мэдэгдэв. Улмаар 10 сарын 3-нд Сирийн ЗГ, Оросын хүчний Алеппо дахь аллага хяналтаас гарлаа гэж үзэн АНУ, Оростой хийсэн 2 талын дипломат гэрээг цуцлах болсноо зарлав. Мөн энэ өдөр ОХУ-н ерөнхийлөгч Владимир Путин АНУ-тай хийсэн 16 жилийн настай цөмийн зөвшилцлөө түдгэлзүүлэх болсноо мэдэгтэж, дараа 7 хоногт нь ахин 2 гэрээг цуцлав. Ингээд 10 сарын 5-нд, Орос цөмийн цохилт өгөх калибр пуужингаар тоноглогдсон 2 тулааны хөлөг онгоцыг Газар дундын тэнгист тавьж, 3 өдрийн дараа Искандер хэмээх цөмийн баллистик пуужингийн системээ Калининградад байршуулсан байна. Мөн 10 сарын 7-нд Оросууд Куб болон Вьетнам дахь хуучин цэрэг, тагнуулын базуудаа ахин нээж магадгүй талаар мэдэгдэл хийжээ.

Дайран дээр давс гэгчээр АНУ-н ерөнхийлөгчийн сонгууль дахь Оросын асуудал гаарч, тэдний цэргийн тагнуулуудын хулгайлсан цахим шуудангууд Викиликс болон бас бус эх сурвалжуудаар өдөр алгасалгүй цацагдаж эхлэв. Энэ бүх Оросын түрэмгийлэлд хандан, Цагаан ордноос 10 сарын 11-нд хийсэн мэдэгдэлдээ “ижил түвшний арга хэмжээ” авах болно хэмээн сүрдүүлэв. Вашингтоны мэдэгдэж байгаагаар Путин Сири дэх галыг зогсоож, АНУ-тай шууд цэргийн хамтарсан ажиллагаа явуулахыг шаардсан нь Оросын дэлхийд тэргүүлэх хүчний нэг болон эргэн ирснээ харуулах гэсэн оролдлого юм гэнэ. Путин өөрийн төр барьж байх хугацаандаа хийсэн олон зөвшилцлөөс буцаж, АНУ-ОХУ-ын харилцааны 15 жилийн түүхийг арчиж байна. Одоо бүх юм эргээд хэлэлцээрийн ширээн дээр овоорлоо.

АНУ-н засгийн газар дипломат хэлэлцээрийг ахин эхлүүлэхийг оролдон, 10 сарын 12-нд Оросыг оролцуулсан Сирийн зөвшилцлийг эхлүүлэх болно гэж зарлав. Хоёр орны хувьд одоо үлдээд байгаа хамгийн гол харилцааны суваг нь Сири дэх 2 орны хүчний санамсаргүй мөргөлдөөнөөс сэргийлэх холбооны шугам ажээ. Гэхдээ эмх замбараагүй мөргөлдөөний дунд, энэ суваг илүү том мөргөлдөөнд ч хүргэж болно. Энэ талаар экс ерөнхийлөгч Жорж Бушын Оростой харилцах харилцааны тэргүүн зөвлөх Том Грахам, “Бид буцаж болохооргүй шугам дээр хараахан ирээгүй байна. Гэхдээ нэгэнт бие бие рүүгээ гал нээгээд эхэлвэл, хаана хүрээд зогсохыг хэн ч мэдэхгүй шүү дээ” хэмээн анхааруулжээ.

Орос Америкын харицаа маш дордсон энэ нөхцөл байдлыг дэлхий дахин 62 оны Кубын миссайл хямралтай зүйрлэж байна. Тухайн үед Кастрогийн Куба, АНУ-н хоорондын харилцаа дордож, дайны байдалд шилжихэд, Кубын холбоотон Орос цөмийн зэвсгээ Карибын тэнгист оруулж байгаа хойд Америк руу чиглүүлж байсан бол энэ удаа Сирийн иргэний дайныг шалтаг болгон Балтын тэнгис, Газар дундын тэнгист зэвсгээ орууллаа. Тухайн үед Кеннеди ерөнхийлөгч, Хрушевийн эсрэг яг өнөөгийнхтэй ижил нөхцөл байдалд орж, Туркэд өөрийн пуужингуудаа байрлуулж байсан байдаг. Уг хямралын үед хэдий мэдээ мэдээллийн хэрэгслээр янз бүрийн юм бичигдэж, дэлхийн 3-р дайн, цөмийн дайн эхлэх нь маягийн юм болж байсан боловч, удалгүй Хрушев тодорхойгүй шалтгаанаар пуужингуудаа буцаан татснаар уг хямрал өндөрлөсөн байдаг. Энэ жигтэй хямралын үеэр, хоёр улсын хэвлэл мэдээллийн хэрэгсэл яг өнөөгийнх шиг өөр хоорондоо арсалдаж байсан авч, Кеннеди Хрушев хоёр өөрийн элчингийн итгэлтэй ажилчдаар дамжуулан нууцаар захиа солилцон харилцаж байсан байдаг. Захианууд ямар агуулгатай байсныг мэдээж нийтэд зарлаагүй ч, уг нууц харилцааны шугамыг сэдэн бий болгож, цаашлаад дайныг эхлүүлээгүй нь хоёр ерөнхийлөгчийн гаргасан хамгийн зөв шийдвэр, амжилт болон үлджээ. Харин өнөөдөр тайзны ард юу өрнөж байгаа бол? Обама, Путин хоёр мессенжэрдэж байгаа болов уу?

Эх сурвалж: Time сэтгүүл, 10 сарын 24 хүртэлх дугаар, “The Brief”.

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