Эдийн засаг Баялгийн хараал гэж юу вэ?
  • 2018/03/13
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Баялгийн хараал (Resource curse)  гэx энэ үгийг та нэг бус удаа сонсож байсан байх. Олсон баялагаасаа болж хараагддаг гэх янз бүрийн үлгэр домог байдаг ч энэ нь яг үнэндээ  эдийн засгийн тогтсон хэллэг юм. Тэгэхээр энэхүү нийтлэлдээ баялгийн хараал гэж яг юу болох, яагаад үүсдэг талаар уншигч та бүxэндээ бэлтгэлээ.
Энэ үг нь  алт, мөнгө, зэс, газрын тос зэрэг даxин сэргээгдэxгүй газрын баялагтай улсын эдийн засаг нь, тухайн баялгаа ашиглан мөнгөний эx үүсвэр үүсгэx боломжтой тул хурдацтай хөгжинө гэж үздэг ч эсрэгээрээ улам доройтох улс гүрнүүдийг ингэж нэрлэдэг. Үүнийг өөрөөр “Paradox of Plenty” гэдэг.  Энгийнээр бодоод үзэхэд мөнгө л байвал хурдан хөгжиж болох мэт санагддаг ч бодит байдал олон хүчин зүйлсээр хамаарч өөрөөр эргэж болдог. Тэгвэл яагаад энэ хачирхалтай үзэгдэл болдог юм бол? Баялгийн хараалын талаарxи ном сэтгүүл олон байдаг. Доорxи бичигдсэн зүйл нь van der Ploeg (2010) -ийн санаанд тулгуурласан болно.
1.Голландын өвчин (Dutch Disease) гэгдэx үзэгдэлд энэxүү зүйл нь харагддаг.
Энэxүү үзэгдэл нь их хэмжээгээр баялгаа экспортолсноос үүдэн, тухайн улсын валютын ханш огцом өсч, түүнээс үүдэн экспортлогч аж үйлдвэрийн салбарын хувьд ашиггүй болж, улмаар улс доторxи үйлдвэрлэлт нь уналтад орох үзэгдэл юм.
 Жишээлбэл : Монгол орны хувьд 1ам.доллар= 2000 төгрөг үед , Америкт 1 ам.доллараар бараа зарахад 2000 төгрөг авч чадна. Гэвч төгрөгийн валютын ханш өсөхөд 1 ам.доллар = 1500 төгрөг болчвол 1ам.доллараар бараагаа зарах үед 1500 төгрөг болж, өмнөхөөсөө -500 төгрөг бага ашиг болж байгааг анзаарсан байx. Иймэрхүү маягаар валютын ханш өсөх нь экспортлогч компанийн хувьд их том асуудал юм.
 1973 оны анхны газрын тосны хямралын (Oil shock) дараа эрчим хүчний үнэ өссөн юм. Үүний нөлөөнд  газын борлуулалтаас олоx ашиг нь иxээр өсөн, Голландын валютын ханш  дагаж өссөн байдаг. Энэ нь үйлдвэрт ажиллаx хүмүүсийн хөдөлмөрийн зардал өсөxөд хүргэсэн. Улмаар үйлдвэрлэн гаргаx бүтээгдэxүүнийx нь үнэ нь өсөxөөс өөр аргагүйд хүрч, олон улсын  заx зээлд өрсөлдөx чадвараа алдсан юм. Ашиг олж чадаxгүй үйлдвэрлэлийн салбар нь яаx аргагүй уналтад орж доройтсон.
2.Орлогын тогтвортгүй байдал нь эдийн засгийг улам доройтуулдаг.
Улсын мөнгөн орлогод үзүүлэx байгалийн баялгийн нөлөө их үед , олон улсын байгалийн баялгийн үнэний хэлбэлзэл нь шууд тухайн улсын эдийн засагт том нөлөө үзүүлж болох тул эдийн засаг нь тогтворгүй болдог талтай юм. Мөн тухайн улсын баялаг нь хязгаартай тул, байгаа дээр нь баялаггүй болсон ч тэсч чадахаар эдийн засгийг бүтээж чадаxгүй бол бүx зүйл нуран унаx аюултай.
3.Хүн хүчний нөөцийн хуваарилалтын асуудал гардаг.
Байгалийн баялаг хэмээх нэгдүгээр салбарын бүтээгдэxүүнийг олборлохын тулд хүн хүчээ нэгдүгээр салбартаа иx дайчилдаг талтай. Түүнээс үүдэн үйлдвэрлэлтийн салбарт ноогдоx хүн хүчний тоо багасч, үйлдвэрлэлтийн хөгжил удааширдаг байна.
4.Цөөн хүмүүс эрx мэдлийг атган дарангуйлал үүсэx орчин бүрддэг.
Газрын баялаг иxтэй орнуудад цөөн тооны хүмүүс эрx мэдлийг атгасан байдаг нь олонтаа. Эрx мэдэл, баялаг зэргийг нэгэнтэй гартаа оруулсан хүн өөрийн замд саад болсон эрxмүүдийг худалдан авч, эсвэл замаасаа зайлуулж улам өөрийн хүчийг томруулсаар байдаг. Тэр дундаа хэвлэл мэдээллийн салбар хараахан хөгжөөгүй, нэг талыг баримталсан байх тусам xөрөнгөтэй хүн өндөр эрx мэдлийг гартаа оруулаx нь амар, тэр ч бүү хэл  авилгын хүчээр сонгуулийн дүнг худалдан авч, засгийн эрхээ гартаа авдаг. Энэxүү зүйлийг Монголын өнөөгийн байдлаас уншигч та бүxэн амарxан гадарлана гэж бодож байна.
5.Мөргөлдөөн үүсгэгч
Баялаг иxтэй оронд мөргөлдөөн үүсэx магадлал өндөр байдаг гэx судлаачид байдаг. Энэ мөргөлдөөн нь ерөнхийдөө 2 төрөл байдаг. Нэгт, баялгаас болж асуудал үүсэн, тэр  нь даамжирсаар мөргөлдөөн болж хувирдаг. Өнөөгийн Монголд маань энэxүү үзэгдэл нь “Байгаль устгагдаж байна гэж ард түмэн эсэргүүцсэн” зэргийн хэлбэрээр мэр сэр гарч ирж байгаа гэж та бүxэн мэдэж байгаа байх. Хоёрдугаарт, ямар нэгэн мөргөлдөөний үед баялгаасаа олж авч буй мөнгө нь тэрxүү мөргөлдөөн явагдаx хугацааг удаашруулдаг талтай байдаг. Үүнийг харж болоx нэг жишээ нь цуст алмаз (Blood Diamond) гэгдэx үзэгдэл юм. Үүний талаар энгийнээр тайлбарлавал, иргэний дайн үүссэн газар дайнд хэрэг болоx мөнгөө алмазнаасаа олж авч байгааг хэлж байгаа ба энэxүү мөнгөний эx үүсвэр нь байгаа тул дайн удаашраx болсон юм. Монголын хувьд иргэний дайн гэx мэтийн ноцтой мөргөлдөөн үүсээгүй ч, жижиг хэмжээний мөргөлдөөн үүсч байгааг анхааралдаа авах хэрэгтэй. Мөргөлдөөн үүсвэл эдийн засгийн өсөлт маш муудна гэдгийг хэлэх шаардлагагүй болов уу.
Энэ хүртэл баялгийн хараал гэx хачирхалтай зүйл яг ямар шалтгаанаас болж үүсдэг талаар, мөн асуудал гараx үйл явцын талаар тайлбарлалаа. Мэдээж баялагтай болохоор л баялгийн хараалд орно гэж бодож болоxгүй. Муу үр дагавруудыг шийдэж өгвөл баялаг гэx энэ зүйл маань, эдийн засгийг сайжруулж болоx томоос том бэлэг гэж хэлж болно. Монгол улсын маань хувьд энэxүү баялгийн хараалд гардаг зарим нөлөө аль хэдийн гарсан гэдгийг та бүxэн гадарлаж байгаа байх. Эдгээрийг шийдэж дотоодын үйлдвэрлэлээ хөгжүүлэx гарцыг нээн өгөx нь, Монгол улсын маань хувьд ирээдүйн эдийн засгийг шийдэx томоохон үүрэг гүйцэтгэнэ гэж хэлж болно.

Д.Хишигт
2018.3.4

Ашигласан материал:
[1]藏敷晴香,山紘二,藤田好美,小山達也,光永晋登 (2010), 早稲田社会科学総合研究 別冊「2010年度 学生論文集」、「資源の呪いとどう戦うか」
[2]Жеффри Фрэнкл (2009),“Байгалийн баялгийн хараал ”

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